The 2012 NFL Play-Offs - Crunch Time!!....

The NFL Play-Offs:

It’s play-off time, for those who aren’t usually enthralled by the regular season games in the NFL, this is the time it becomes really worth it to stay up late (if you live in this part of the globe (Nigeria/Africa)) to catch a gripping game that can go either way and offenses or defences really step up to the plate. It’s where the road to the Superbowl or an early exit can be as real as 1 game away.

But before we get caught up in the prospect of edge of your seat, make or break football, let’s stop to find out what teams made it this far and what lies ahead on the road to Lucas Oil Stadium for SuperBowl XLVI

Wild Card Round:

4 games – Eight teams square off to earn the right to play in the division playoffs

This time the teams/matchups have:

1.     Cincinnati Bengals V Houston Texans

This is the Texans’ 1^st playoff game in franchise history and The Bengals are also a surprise in the Playoffs this season. This game also sees 2 rookies square off Bengals Andy Dalton v Texans T J Yates.  

The Bengals have run for more than 100 yards as a team in 9 straight games, Thanks for the most part to Cedric Benson and -Bernard Scott. The Bengals have already lost to the Texans this season and will be seeking revenge; they have also not been able to beat a team with a winning record this season.

The revenge factor may well be their biggest motivation, plus they know where their mistakes against the Texans were the last time out.

The Texans are celebrating already, their 1^st playoff appearance is certainly worth the champagne but their opponents are not exactly a daunting opponent.

The Texans D has been awesome 2^nd ranked overall behind the Steelers and ahead of the Ravens and a running game bettered only by The Broncos. If the Texans can eliminate the errors that have plagued them recently and stick to what they have been good at all season, then a win and another milestone appearance is certain.

My prediction:

The Texans get it right, keep it tight and get the win against a Bengals team that will be pumped up for the game too.

 

2.     Pittsburgh Steelers V Denver Broncos

This matchup is very tantalizing, maybe not as much offensively as the Lions V Saints matchup but for the fact that the Tebow Mania goes up against the famous Steel Curtain (Yes – Black & Yellow (x4))

The Steelers have the league’s top ranked defense while the Broncos have the league’s top ranked rushing offense. The Broncos however go into this crucial match very cold having lost their last 3 games with Tebow going very very cold. Tebow is the most inaccurate starting passer in the league and his last appearance was one of the worst passing displays from any QB for a while.

This is the Broncos 1^st Playoff appearance since 2005, they are 1-6 all time in Wild Card Games. They have lost the last 3 and the Steelers will be looking to pile on the misery.

If Tebow and the Broncos can manage to run effectively against the best D in the league (Tebow and McGahee have combined for 1,859 yards on 371 carries, scoring 10 of the team's 11 rushing touchdowns. The Steelers are giving up more rushing yardage this year than usual (97 yards per game), but they have allowed just 1 rushing TD in the past 7 games) and at the same time magically get Tebow to become a good passer come Saturday, then the Broncos have a great chance of coming out on top.

Everyone is talking about the Steelers D but FYI Broncos pair Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller combined for 21 sacks this season. The pressure from this pair on tip toe Big Ben may be crucial even though Von Miller is playing through injury with a cast on his arm at the moment.

The Steeelers on the other hand are more concerned going into this game with the injury issues they suddenly face. Safety Ryan Clark out with a Sickle Cell condition that prevents him from playing at high altitudes, Rashard Mendenhall out with a torn ACL and Big Ben Roethlisberger is struggling with a sprained ankle but is typically likely to play.  All indicators point to a Steelers win, traditional great defense with offense that can be explosive with WR Mike Wallace, TE Heath Miller and the veteran WR Hines Ward. The running game will also depend on Isaac Redman filling in for the injured Mendenhall

My Prediction:

Just because everyone is off the Tebow Mania band wagon, I’m jumping on it. Tim has said he will take Elway’s advice and pull the trigger. If you don’t but a ticket you don’t win the lottery, coupled with the Steelers injury problems my bet is on the Broncos wining against all the odds.

3.     Atlanta Hawks V New York Giants

Matt Ryan is searching for his 1^st playoff win with the Atlanta Falcons, Eli Manning is hot at the moment following an elite display against the Cowboys in their Playoff game before the playoffs.

For the Giants , the fact that they are hot at the moment is what they have going for them. Victor Cruz is looking like speedy Gonzalez. Eli Manning is playing like Drew Brees, well maybe not but he’s playing really good and the offense is really clicking. Manning  set an NFL record with 15 fourth-quarter TD passes and his fourth-quarter passer rating of 110.0 was the NFL's second-best mark. He was also 67 yards short of 5,000 yards in the regular season.

His season was notable since he led the Giants to five victories when they trailed in the final period.

The same cannot be said for the defense with an average of 25 points allowed per game. A team that can get to Eli Manning will put an end to their run. Notable also is the fact that the Giants running game ranks last in the league, once again, getting to Eli is key to victory.

Justin Tuck called the Atlanta Falcons Offensive Line ‘Dirtbags’, Atlanta Left Tackle Will Svitek didn’t mind at all. The Falcons have the 6^th best rush defense in the league. The dirty birds will have to get Eli Manning in the dirt to win this, that’s because at QB they have a man in Matt Ryan who enters off his best season, throwing 29 TD passes to tie the Giants' Eli Manning for the league's 6th-highest total. That figure, along with Ryan's 4,177 yards and 92.2 passer rating are career bests, with receivers Roddy White and rookie Julio Jones combining for 2,252 yards and 16 TDs.

 

My prediction:

The Atlanta Falcons win this due to their better all round game, I see the younger Manning brother being punished but it will be close.

4.     Detroit Lions V New Orleans Saints

This match up is set to be an offensive festival as these 2 teams can certainly put up the numbers. It’s Drew Brees (who by the way just broke Dan Marino’s 1984 single season passing record) versus Matt Stafford.

The New Orleans Saints are an offensive force both on the ground and in the air. Averaging 467.1 overall yards per game and 334.2 passing yards per game (both league highs), 132.9 rushing yards per game (6^th in the league) 34.2 points scored per game (2^nd only to the Green Bay Packers). The combination and relationship between Head Coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees is as rosy as the numbers we just saw. One thing is for sure, this team can score, almost at will. Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas provide huge threats on the ground, WR Marques Colston and TE Jimmy Graham have been sweet targets for Brees all season too.

Getting to Drew Brees is not the easiest feat either, the Saints Offensive Line have only allowed a sack for 1 out of Drew Brees’ 266.9 dropbacks (league best). This is largely due to their 3 offensive linemen going to the Pro Bowl Jermon Bushrod, Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks.

The Saints are not the worst team on defense either, allowing an average of 21.2 points per game (13^th in the league) and a rush defense ranked 12^th in the league.

This game would be over before is started but the Detroit Lions are formidable in offense as well. 5^th in the league in total offense yards gained per game (396.1)  and 4^th in average points scored (29.6) and passing yards as well (300.9).

The Lions rushing game does leave a lot to be admired though, ranked 29^th in the league in average rushing yards per game. Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson will have to make sure that the link between them remains intact if the Lions wish to have any chance of beating the heavily fancied Saints.

More importantly, the Lions will need to avoid the penalties they committed that effectively cost them the game the last time both teams met. They will also need to find a way to run the ball and effectively too, keeping Drew Brees off the pitch will be key, getting to him when he’s on it too.

My prediction:

Stopping the saints is not impossible but it is easier said than done. The Lions will discover this come Saturday. Saints win.

Time will tell if I’m spot on or way off the mark – Happy New Year – Let’s Play Football!!......

Timi Adesanya – Head; Projects & Strategy – Tactics IQ Limited

www.tacticsiq.com

In case you were wondering, the following Teams have earned byes to the next round, I will analyse/discuss them in the next post when they will be in action:

1.      The New England Patriots

2.      The Baltimore Ravens

3.      The Green Bay Packers and

4.      The San Francisco 49ers

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